Pamela MaldonadoApr 1, 2026, 09:00 AM ET
- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
TPC San Antonio is a ballstriking test that exposes weak iron play, forcing players to grind around the greens.
Thursday's near-constant storms put the usual "fast start" angle in doubt. Friday stays messy with wind and lingering rain, while Saturday looks like a potential disruption with heavy storms and delays.
Sunday flips completely; it's forecast to be cooler, drier and playable. That means this tournament likely isn't decided early, but built for steady players who can survive the first three days and take advantage when conditions finally ease.
Keep the card tight this week. There's no edge in forcing wagers right before Masters week.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and subject to change.
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Ludvig Åberg: Top 20 (-125)
Full odds:
Top 10 +165
Top 5 +315
To win +1500
The question this week is whether TPC San Antonio stays a ballstriking contest or turns into a short game grind, because that distinction is everything for Aberg.
The case for him is simple. He posted back-to-back elite ballstriking weeks, resulting in a T3 at Bay Hill and a T5 at the Players. His strokes gained on approach are top 10 in the field, gaining off the tee and with his irons simultaneously, the exact combo this course rewards most.
TPC is built to expose average iron players. The fairways run 25-30 yards wide, greens are heavily bunkers, and the undulation makes them play smaller than their actual size. Miss in the wrong spot and you're scrambling from deep sand or native rough.
Aberg's ballstriking means he's rarely in either conversation.
And when he does miss, the short game data backs him up, 12th in sand saves could be beneficial given how punishing the Valero greenside bunkers are plus top 25 around the green. The one genuine softness is overall scrambling, but with his irons this sharp, he's creating shorter, cleaner recovery situations to begin with.
Jordan Spieth: Top 20 (-110)
Full odds:
Top 10 +190
Top 5 +375
To win +1850
Having Spieth on your card is like having multiple players because he can be so erratic, but that cuts both ways. This week, the conditions are setting up for the version of Spieth you actually want.
Three straight top-20s at this course, including a win in 2021. His course history here isn't a coincidence. He's top five on approach, top 30 around the green, and top 10 from tee-to-green, a profile that fits a course that demands iron precision and short game creativity in equal measure. When he posted a T10 in 2024, Spieth gained nearly 10 strokes in ballstriking. In 2025, his putting carried him. In other words, he finds ways to contend.
The weather forecast actually elevates him from good play to higher conviction because of rain and suppressed scoring in the early rounds. That's a survival and imagination week, grinding through tougher conditions, saving pars from spots other turn into bogeys, and staying patient while the field bleeds shots.
When conditions get uncomfortable and chaos starts separating the field, that's when you want to back Spieth.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Sudarshan Yellamaraju, $8,100: The data says he belongs in the conversation, top six off the tee, on approach, and total, plus back-to-back top-six finishes at the Players and Houston, posting impressive iron stats in all but one tournament he's played this year. The form is real.
The risk is equally real. Sand saves are 107th on a course where bunkers are placed to stress you out, and he's never played this course. The $8,100 price is for a ballstriking profile that fits the course on paper, against a field that will have players who actually know how it plays. The ceiling is there but the floor is genuinely unknown.
DFS player to fade
Denny McCarthy, $8,200: The course history is real, and it'll get him attention. McCarthy has a second-place finish in 2025 along with two other top 20s. The horses for courses narrative will be loud with this one and at $8,200, it looks like value. It isn't.
His 2026 form is a problem that course history can't paper over; two cuts in his last four starts, erratic off the tee, has gained in back to back rounds with his irons but is that consistent enough? Before that, he lost on approach on four straight. Perhaps he's found something but he's outside of the top 50 in scrambling and outside the top 100 in sand saves. If his irons are off, he could be in real trouble throughout the week. The old version of McCarthy is enticing but his 2026 version is more likely to show up.
